I'll buy that for a dollar (also, more shade)

With everybody (in the games media, at least) basically assuming that Diablo IV must be in development at Activision Blizzard, and basically telling Diablo fans to just cool it, already, because the game they wanted had to be coming, it's interesting to read this alternate take on why Blizzard may not have announced D4 at BlizzCon, from Kotaku:

In the latest episode of the Front Seat Cast podcast, which is put together by developers at Grinding Gear Games, GGG co-founder Jonathan Rogers said the Path of Exile studio was fully expecting Diablo 4 to drop. Rogers was also surprised at the degree to which the Diablo Immortal outrage had spread into the real-world.

But the theory posited by Rogers from 37 minutes in, which referenced some of our previous reporting on Diablo 4, is that Blizzard hasn't officially announced the game - because they may still be in the position where they need the ability to cancel the project outright, as they did with Titan.

"The thing that I find interesting about it ... why would you not just say you're working on Diablo 4? The only reason I can see is that they actually don't want to commit to making it," Rogers said. "And that implies that they're not sure if they're ever going to release it. But the thing is, you hear that and you're like, 'That can't be true, that cannot be true.' But I guess, you know, that sort of implies a certain amount of turmoil in it's development."

Rogers added that he hasn't heard anything personally to verify that, but he noted - as did the other Grinding Gears employees on the podcast - that he'd seen multiple high-level job postings for the Diablo team. "It kind of makes you just wonder, could there be so much turmoil there that they don't want to even announce they're working on it in case it gets cancelled?"

"The other thing that I also realise is that even if that's not the case, imagine if they announced they're working on D4 this Blizzcon. And then next Blizzcon comes along and they didn't have a proper announcement. That would be a really bad thing. So the implication then there, are they maybe not sure they could reach an announcement a year from now? And that would be the concern that would lead to them not wanting to announcement? Because otherwise you would think they would just say, we're working on this."

Now, Rogers' speculation is just that: pure speculation. He's not tapped in to Blizzard, and doesn't know anything more about D4's development than does anyone else who's commented on it since the disastrous Diablo Immortal announcement. But I've been reading rumours about D4's development being troubled for a while now, with several reports claiming that Blizzard have completely changed direction more than once with the title, and still don't have a firm handle on exactly what a Diablo title should, or could, look like.

There's a reason why Blizzard still haven't made a second expansion to D3. There's a reason why they see Diablo Immortal's potential appeal to new players on other platforms as the only viable path forward for the franchise. And the thought that D4 may be on the cancellation bubble because nobody from D3's dev team can figure out how to make a fun ARPG anymore isn't surprising to me at all.

I believe it, too. Because I don't see any way that Blizzard can craft a sequel to Diablo III which will simultaneously appeal both to fans of D3, and to long-time fans of the Diablo franchise who still feel like they never really got the sequel to Diablo II that Blizzard had promised them at BlizzCon 2010. There may be no way to please both groups, and even if there were, there's no guarantee that disillusioned D2 would come back for D4, anyway.

In short, D4 may well end up cancelled simply because Blizzard don't actually have a viable Diablo franchise, anymore. Disillusioned D2 fans, remember, make up something like 80% of the franchise's fan base; D3 fans, or "Reaper of Souls customers," are only 20%, which would be about the portion of the fan base that actually bought the game's only expansion.

Diablo fans' freakout over Diablo IV seemed to be driven by a fear that D:I's existence was a sign that D4's development was in jeopardy... which may turn out to be absolutely true. Path of Exile, meanwhile, has just announced their largest expansion ever, and is welcoming Diablo III fans with open arms. Does anyone still think that Diablo is the future of the ARPG genre?

Time will tell, of course, but if they're serious about regaining control of the narrative, and winning their Diablo fans back over, Activision Blizzard is going to have to say something about their Diablo plans for PC soon. Their fans may not be willing to "wait until next year" for yet another year. And really, at this point, who would blame them?

Your move, Blizzard. For your sake, I hope it's a good one.